Why Some Asylum Seekers Choose to Stay Beyond Their Legal Right

Professor Romuald Meango

Tutor in Economics

My research, based on a unique survey of Afghan asylum seekers in Germany, tries to answer this question. We asked about their expectations: Do they think they will eventually be allowed to stay? What do they believe about deportation? How do they imagine their lives with or without legal status?

The results are striking. On average, Afghan asylum seekers believed they had a good chance of eventually gaining the right to remain, even if their application was denied. They also thought the risk of deportation was much higher than it actually was. But correcting this misperception — by telling some participants the true deportation statistics — did not change their outlook or intentions.

Most participants expressed a strong desire to stay in Germany. If denied the right to remain, they still reported a 64% likelihood of staying on. When we calculated what this choice was “worth” to them in financial terms, the median value of overstaying came to between €31,000 and €37,000 over six years. This reflects not only possible income but also the hope of eventually being regularised and the option to wait and see what the future brings.

What does this mean for policy? European governments have promoted voluntary return schemes, offering money to those who agree to leave. But our findings suggest these schemes are not cost-effective. For example, the German scheme offered up to €2,000 — but this has only a marginal effect, and leaves the possibility that people who would have left anyway will simply cash in the money, return to their home country and move further.

By contrast, asylum seekers showed a clear willingness to “invest” in their future in Germany. Around 30% would be prepared to pay at least €100 a month towards something that would guarantee their right to stay. This suggests that policies encouraging integration — through education, training, or employment pathways — could be both more humane and more effective than deterrence or return schemes.

In short, the decision to overstay is not simply a matter of defiance. It reflects hopes, fears, and a careful weighing of uncertain futures. Understanding these perspectives is essential if we want to design migration policies that work for both asylum seekers and host societies.